Shares of AppLovin rose about 5% at mid-session after a wave of bullish Wall Street notes lifted near-term expectations for its advertising business. BTIG lifted its first-quarter revenue forecast to $1.82 billion, above its prior estimate and AppLovin’s guidance of $1.745 billion to $1.775 billion, citing healthier sequential performance from non-gaming marketers. Wedbush reiterated its outperform rating on AppLovin, highlighting the company’s forthcoming generative artificial intelligence advertising suite as a potential catalyst, according to CNBC.
Invesco slid nearly 5% after BlackRock filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to create an alternative to Invesco’s lucrative QQQ Trust, an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100 index. Encompass Health jumped more than 6% after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed a 2.4% rate increase for the government’s fiscal year 2027 under the Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility (IRF) Prospective Payment System. Jefferies upgraded Kratos Defense & Security to Buy from Hold and set an $85 price target, while Boot Barn was upgraded to Buy with a $195 target, with analysts noting a meaningful valuation reset alongside intact execution and demand trends, according to CNBC.
Elbit Systems rose about 4% after the defense contractor announced a $750 million award to supply its PULS rocket artillery systems to the Hellenic Armed Forces. Lucid Group fell more than 5% after reporting first-quarter deliveries of 3,093 vehicles and noting that Gravity SUV production was interrupted for 29 days due to a supplier-quality issue with second-row seats. Soleno Therapeutics surged 32% after Neurocrine Biosciences announced an all-cash offer to acquire Soleno for $53 per share, valuing the deal at around $2.9 billion and expanding Neurocrine’s endocrinology and rare-disease portfolio, CNBC reported.
Bitcoin and related crypto equities moved higher, with bitcoin trading above $69,000 and lifting Mara, Strategy and Coinbase. Mara rose more than 3%, Strategy jumped 6%, and Coinbase gained more than 3%, according to CNBC.
Dow and LyondellBasell slipped after Bank of America downgraded both to underperform from neutral, saying recent strength had been driven by unsustainable tailwinds related to geopolitical factors. The declines were about 3% for each stock on the session, CNBC reported.
Memory-focused shares also rebounded, continuing a bounce from a sharp sell-off the prior week. SanDisk rose about 2%, Microchips maker Micron gained roughly 4%, Western Digital rose more than 4%, and Seagate Technology advanced about 6% after Morgan Stanley named Seagate a top pick, CNBC noted.
Key takeaways
- Price move: AppLovin up about 5%; Invesco down nearly 5%; Encompass Health up over 6%; Kratos up 8%; Boot Barn up around 8%; Lucid down >5%; Soleno up 32%; crypto-linked names higher; Dow and LyondellBasell down ~3%; memory stocks broadly higher.
- Catalysts: broker upgrades and price-target revisions for AppLovin and Kratos; CMS rate proposal benefiting post-acute providers; large defense contract for Elbit; Soleno-Neurocrine deal; BlackRock’s QQQ alternative filing; Downgrade by Bank of America for two industrial names; crypto price moves lifting related equities.
- Implications: mixed session shows sensitivity to sector-specific catalysts (advertising tech, healthcare reimbursement, defense procurements) and to macro moves in crypto markets; potential re-pricing of beneficiaries and beneficiaries of policy shifts in the near term.
What drove the move
AppLovin’s intraday strength was driven by two prominent Wall Street catalysts. First, BTIG raised its first-quarter revenue forecast to $1.82 billion, a step above both its prior estimate and AppLovin’s guidance of $1.745 billion to $1.775 billion, on expectations of healthier performance from non-gaming marketers. Second, Wedbush maintained its outperform rating, underscoring the potential lift from AppLovin’s new generative AI advertising suite. Taken together, these notes shifted investor sentiment toward the company’s near-term monetization potential in ad-tech, according to CNBC.
The day’s other notable moves reflected a blend of regulatory, defense and healthcare signals. Invesco’s shares declined after BlackRock’s SEC filing to offer an alternative to the QQQ Trust—a reminder of the evolving lineup of passive and quasi-passive vehicles tracking large-cap indices. Encompass Health benefited from a CMS rate proposal that would raise inpatient rehabilitation payments for FY2027, a development seen as favorable for providers operating in the post-acute space. In the defense sector, Jefferies’ upgrade of Kratos Defense and Boot Barn’s valuation reset were cited as catalysts for renewed upside potential, with analysts flagging a robust weapons and demographic demand backdrop and disciplined execution, respectively, CNBC reported.
Elbit Systems’ gain followed a sizable contract win, while Lucid’s decline reflected ongoing delivery challenges and production interruptions. Soleno Therapeutics’ surge came on news of an acquisition by Neurocrine Biosciences, a deal designed to expand Neurocrine’s endocrinology and rare-disease portfolio. Crypto-linked stocks were helped by a broader uptick in bitcoin toward the $69,000 level, reinforcing the intertwined fate of digital assets and related equities in risk-on trading sessions.
Market reaction
The session underscored a bifurcated market where investors rotated into sectors seen as more resilient to near-term macro headwinds while remaining cognizant of idiosyncratic risks. The rebound in memory stocks—SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital and Seagate—suggests a continuation of the broader semiconductor and storage equipment rally that has characterized parts of 2026, aided by upbeat sentiment from top picks and broker calls. Meanwhile, the crypto-linked cohort moved in tandem with bitcoin’s moves, illustrating ongoing alignment between digital-asset volatility and related equities.
What analysts are saying
Analysts highlighted a few durable themes across the day’s movers. BTIG’s revision of AppLovin’s Q1 revenue forecast underscored confidence in marketing mix shifts toward non-gaming advertisers, while Wedbush’s reiteration of an outperform rating framed the potential earnings leverage from AI-enabled ad solutions. Jefferies’ upgrade of Kratos Defense and Boot Barn’s fresh buy ratings reflected expected accretion from defense programs and a valuation reset that could unlock upside if demand holds, CNBC noted.
On the negative side, Bank of America’s downgrade of Dow and LyondellBasell to underperform added a cautionary note about momentum being susceptible to policy and geopolitical dynamics as well as the sustainability of year-to-date gains. Morgan Stanley’s continued emphasis on memory stocks as top picks contributed to the sector’s strength in the broader market rotation.
Bigger picture
The day’s action sits squarely at the intersection of policy, technology and geopolitics. The CMS rate proposal for FY2027 provides visibility for revenue trajectories in post-acute care providers, potentially supporting margins and utilization for Encompass Health and peers. The defense sector’s rally signals ongoing demand for modernization programs, with Kratos benefiting from a large opportunity pipeline in weapons and related technologies. AI-enabled advertising platforms remain a focal point for growth in marketing technology, with AppLovin cited as a beneficiary of the broader shift to intelligent ad solutions.
Crypto markets continue to influence sentiment and sectoral performance, with bitcoin’s level acting as a barometer for risk appetite and crypto-exposed equities. The Dow and industrial names, meanwhile, illustrate how equity markets price in geopolitical risk and policy shifts—where a downgrade can loosen recent upside momentum even as other sectors post gains.
Looking ahead, investors will be watching for further earnings signals and guidance from ad-tech peers, updates on defense program awards, and any additional regulatory filings that could reshape passive-investment product demand. The macro backdrop—including inflation expectations and central-bank moves—will continue to color swings in both cyclical and growth stocks as investors separate durable earnings momentum from transitional tailwinds.
What to watch next: upcoming earnings reports from major ad-tech and defense players, any follow-up on CMS policy developments, and new data on crypto market activity that could reaffirm or recalibrate the current risk-on stance.
