International Business Machines shares have continued to draw fresh attention as investors weigh the company’s long-term technology investments, particularly in quantum computing. The stock is down for 2026 and recently faced market skepticism after results failed to impress, but IBM’s leadership has pointed to a potential timeline for when quantum work could translate into measurable financial impact.
Key takeaways
- Price move: IBM has fallen 19% in 2026 and remains under pressure despite a rebound from a prior selloff.
- Catalyst: CEO Arvind Krishna reiterated expectations that quantum computing could begin showing measurable effects on IBM’s financials in the late 2020s.
- Key implication: Investors are increasingly focusing on whether IBM’s quantum strategy can become a growth lever as computing demand rises.
- Valuation angle: The article cites IBM trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 21 versus an S&P 500 average of 26, framing it as relatively inexpensive for a large technology company.
What drove the renewed focus on IBM’s quantum push
Quantum computers, in principle, can tackle certain complex problems more quickly than conventional systems. The investment case for IBM is closely tied to the broader tech demand for compute power, particularly as artificial intelligence accelerates interest in new forms of computing. Against that backdrop, IBM has been increasing its quantum computing efforts and positioning them as a medium-to-long term opportunity for the business.
In comments discussed in the article, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna told CNBC that investors may begin to see a measurable contribution from quantum computing to IBM’s top line and bottom line in 2028 or 2029. He further suggested that by the end of the 2030s, the value created from the technology could reach trillion-dollar scale.
Market reaction and what investors are weighing
The article frames the quantum narrative against IBM’s near-term stock performance. It notes that IBM has struggled this year, falling 19% in 2026, with investor concerns linked to growth expectations and reaction to recent results. While quantum computing is not expected to immediately reverse those concerns, the company’s stated timeline is intended to support a longer-dated view of IBM’s potential for technology-led earnings growth.
It also highlights that sentiment turned more sharply after the stock dropped about a month prior following the release of preliminary numbers that were described as coming in well short of expectations. Although the shares have risen since that decline, the article emphasizes that they remain down significantly for the year, implying that investors are still demanding proof of progress on fundamentals even as they consider the quantum option.
Valuation discussion: why the stock is seen as relatively priced
The article argues that periods of market overreaction can create opportunities for long-term investors. Specifically, it points to IBM’s valuation, stating that the stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 21, compared with an S&P 500 average multiple of 26. The comparison is used to support the view that IBM may be priced more attractively than the broader market, particularly for an established technology company.
That said, the core uncertainty remains timing. Quantum computing’s commercial impact is still dependent on technical milestones, industry adoption, and IBM’s ability to convert research and platform progress into revenue and margin benefits. In the near term, investors continue to balance those questions against current earnings momentum and guidance expectations.
Bigger picture: quantum computing’s role in the tech sector
Quantum computing has been a focal theme among growth investors in recent years, and the article references how enthusiasm for the space can sharply lift smaller, high-risk plays—citing Rigetti Computing’s surge of more than 1,400% in 2024. It also notes that interest has cooled for such companies due to longer-term uncertainty around their business models.
In contrast, the article positions IBM as a more “behemoth” exposure to the trend, emphasizing that IBM is investing heavily and expects quantum to become a measurable factor in the business over time. If IBM’s roadmap progresses as leadership projects, investors may increasingly view quantum as an incremental driver layered onto IBM’s broader technology portfolio—rather than a standalone speculative bet.
What to watch next: Investors are likely to focus on whether IBM’s upcoming updates—particularly any guidance and results that speak to growth, margins, and product traction—can reduce near-term skepticism. On the quantum side, continued progress toward IBM’s stated 2028–2029 visibility window will remain central, along with broader market drivers for enterprise IT spending and the pace of AI-related demand for compute.
