Coffee futures fell on the day as traders pointed to improved growing conditions in key producing regions and fresh evidence of strong export flows from Brazil. December arabica coffee slid 1.45% and November ICE robusta coffee dropped 1.44%, extending a recent pullback driven by supply expectations.
Key takeaways
- Price move: December arabica coffee fell 1.45% and November ICE robusta coffee dropped 1.44%.
- Catalyst: Traders cited above-normal rainfall in Brazil and strong rain in Vietnam, alongside continued export strength.
- Implication: The market is leaning toward a more supply-friendly outlook for the next harvest cycle, keeping upward pressure limited despite some inventory tightness in arabica.
- What to watch: Weather developments during Brazil’s flowering period and further updates from the International Coffee Organization and major exporters.
What drove the move
Arabica prices weakened as forecasts and reports suggested favorable conditions for the next crop. In Brazil’s main arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, Somar Meteorologia reported 59.4 mm of rainfall during the week ended September 13—1,212% of the historical average—supporting flowering prospects for a later harvest window and weighing on prices.
Vietnam’s crop picture also improved, with Viasala noting abundant rains that increased soil moisture and should support cherry development in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-producing area. That outlook matters for robusta given Vietnam’s role as the world’s top robusta supplier, and it reinforced the bearish supply narrative.
At the same time, export data added to the near-term supply flow. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s total coffee exports rose 31% year over year in August to 4.155 million bags, a record for that month. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports rose 54% to 953,592 bags. Separately, Brazil’s Trade Ministry said August coffee exports climbed 44.6% year over year to 206,618 metric tons, the highest level in eight months.
Market reaction and the supply-demand backdrop
The price decline follows a broader move lower in coffee futures over the past three weeks. According to the International Coffee Organization, global coffee production in 2025/26 rose 4.4% year over year to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption fell 0.9% year over year to 180.6 million bags. The resulting surplus was estimated at about 3 million bags, the first surplus in five years, which has pressured prices as traders priced in a looser balance.
Robusta weakness has also been supported by data pointing to stronger export momentum from Vietnam. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that 2026 coffee exports (January through August) increased 13.7% year over year to 1.33 million metric tons, and Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports rose 17.5% year over year to 1.58 million metric tons. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 production is projected to rise 6% year over year to 1.76 million metric tons.
There was, however, a split between inventory trends that helps explain why arabica and robusta are moving together but not necessarily for the same underlying reason. Falling inventories have been a supportive factor for arabica: ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 217,932 bags last Friday. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9.5-month high of 5,043 lots on Monday, which tends to weigh on robusta pricing when supply appears ample.
Geopolitical and weather risks still in the mix
Even with today’s declines, some market participants continue to monitor weather risks for Brazil. Concerns about an El Niño pattern have been cited as a potential headwind for next year’s crop. Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when flowering typically occurs, which could reduce the 2026/27 harvest potential. The US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño conditions emerging across the equatorial Pacific last month are expected to be among the strongest in more than 75 years.
Separately, the most recent USDA biannual forecast has been less supportive for prices overall. On July 22, the USDA projected global coffee output in the 2026-27 season would rise 6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly tied to improved growing conditions in Brazil. It also expected world ending stocks to increase to 26.3 million bags and anticipated arabica production rising while robusta production slightly declines.
Bigger picture
For investors, the immediate driver of this selloff appears to be a combination of weather-related comfort and data showing robust export activity from major producers. While arabica’s tight inventory profile may limit how far prices fall, robusta’s inventory buildup and the expectation of larger global supplies have kept downside pressure intact.
Looking ahead, traders will likely focus on further weather updates for Brazil’s flowering period, additional export statistics from Brazil and Vietnam, and the next set of global balance sheet signals from major industry organizations and USDA forecasts. Any fresh tightening in arabica inventories could provide support, but sustained improvement in growing conditions would continue to challenge upside momentum across the complex.
