Dubai’s property market appears to be moving from an early, expectation-driven phase of price tension into a slower period of adjustment, according to an updated analysis by Property Finder. The latest read on buyer and seller expectations suggests the gap is narrowing again, but mostly through buyers dialing back how much they expect discounts, while advertised prices remain comparatively resilient.
The signal matters for transaction dynamics because negotiations often stall when buyers and sellers anchor to widely different reference prices. When those anchors converge, deals can resume even if prices do not “reset” abruptly.
Buyer expectation for price drops eases to 63% in May
Property Finder’s analysis points to a second consecutive monthly decline in the share of buyers expecting prices to fall. In May 2026, 63% of buyers said they expected lower prices, down from more than 70% at the onset of the conflict.
Before the conflict period, sentiment was more evenly distributed. In Property Finder’s January to February 2026 consumer sentiment poll, 36% expected prices to fall, 35% expected them to rise, and 29% expected prices to hold steady. That baseline matters because it implies the market was not universally bearish going into the shock, with many buyers uncertain rather than uniformly pessimistic.
Once the conflict began, expectations shifted quickly. The data described by Property Finder indicate that most buyers moved toward expecting reductions, and that expectation has been easing month by month since then, reaching 63% in May.
Sellers hold closer to pre-conflict asking levels
While buyers were adjusting, sellers were described as moving only marginally. Property Finder’s proprietary listing price index reportedly places advertised asking prices at about 2% below pre-conflict levels in May. That compares with roughly 1% below in April, suggesting less momentum on the seller side.
For buyers, this combination can be frustrating at first, because it means expectations of deeper discounts may take time to materialize. For sellers, holding firm can help protect downside, but it can also prolong time on market if buyers refuse to meet the asking price.
In practical terms, Property Finder frames the moment as an ongoing process of price discovery, where buyers and sellers gradually align on what homes are worth. The narrowing of the buyer-seller expectations gap is one behavioral indicator that alignment is starting to return, even if the transaction recovery is not immediate.
More renters, fewer immediate “wait for a deal” decisions
Beyond price expectations, the report also points to how demand is being expressed. Rather than disappearing, purchasing intent appears to be shifting toward renting in the near term.
Property Finder says new rental contracts in May were 20% below pre-conflict levels. That improves from a 32% gap in March, indicating momentum is returning to leasing activity. The report also highlights a composition shift: nearly half of rental activity in May involved people moving into new homes, not simply renewing existing leases. The share reportedly rose from 41% in March to 47% in May.
This distinction is important for interpreting “demand” because renewals can occur even when customers want minimal change, while moves typically signal active decision-making. A higher portion of moves suggests households are willing to commit now, even as price negotiations continue for buyers.
Industry perspective: negotiations continue, but lowball offers are less common
The report includes commentary from real estate figures that broadly aligns with the data trends. Property Finder’s Chief Revenue Officer, Cherif Sleiman, is quoted describing the market as narrowing through expectation-setting rather than a sudden rush driven by panic. The emphasis is that deals typically resume once the distance between buyer and seller reference prices shrinks.
Additional views cited in the analysis also point to a more disciplined negotiation environment. Dacha Real Estate’s CEO, Alessia Sheglova, is described as characterizing buyers as more data-driven and negotiating more rigorously, while noting that well-priced properties may not be seeing heavy discounting. McCone Properties’ Managing Partner, Sam McCone, is quoted describing how very low opening offers have faded compared with the early conflict period, and how some previously stalled deals are starting to move as parties adjust to value more realistically.
While these statements reflect the perspectives of specific operators, they also help translate survey-style indicators into day-to-day market behavior: how offers are being structured, and why sellers may remain selective about pricing.
What the narrowing gap could mean for Dubai’s next phase
If buyer expectations continue to soften while sellers remain near current asking levels, the buyer-seller gap may continue to close gradually. That scenario can support a more stable market, but it does not automatically imply a rapid price decline.
For home buyers, the data suggests the “expect a big drop” strategy may be losing traction, at least relative to earlier months. For sellers, holding closer to pre-conflict pricing could remain feasible if buyers increasingly accept that discounts are likely incremental rather than dramatic.
For renters, the improvement in new lease activity indicates that households still need housing solutions while they wait for purchase negotiations to clear. If more people continue moving rather than renewing, leasing demand could remain comparatively resilient.
Property Finder said it will continue tracking the gap between buyer and seller expectations as a gauge of where the market stands. Investors and brokers are likely to watch that metric closely because it often functions as an early warning system for whether price negotiations are moving toward resolution.
Note: This article is based on figures and analysis reported by Property Finder in its May 2026 buyer and seller expectation update.
