Coffee futures finished mixed on Friday as arabica prices rose and robusta fell, reflecting divergent supply signals from Brazil and warehouse inventory trends. December arabica coffee, referred to as KCZ26, closed up 3.20 cents, or 1.03%, while November ICE robusta coffee, RMX26, settled down 26 dollars per metric ton, or 0.73%.
Arabica found support from tighter available supplies after ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 27-year low, while robusta remained under pressure following a rise in ICE robusta inventories to a 9-month high earlier in the week.
Key takeaways
- Price move: December arabica coffee (KCZ26) rose 1.03%, while November robusta (RMX26) fell 0.73% on Friday.
- Catalyst: ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-year low, while ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9-month high.
- Implication: Investors are treating arabica supply as relatively constrained and robusta supply as more abundant, reinforcing spread differentiation.
- Macro/seasonal factors: Weather concerns around El Niño are supportive for Brazilian future crops, but near-term harvesting conditions in Brazil can weigh on prices.
What drove the move
Inventory trends were central to Friday’s mixed settlement. According to ICE data cited in the market wrap, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 223,976 bags, the lowest level in 27 years. Rising inventories typically reduce nearby scarcity premiums, so falling stock levels tend to support front-month arabica contracts.
Robusta moved in the opposite direction on supply indicators. The same overview pointed to ICE robusta inventories reaching 4,943 lots, a 9-month high on Tuesday, a development that generally pressures prompt robusta pricing by signaling a larger buffer of available coffee.
Traders also referenced Brazil’s harvest pace and storage conditions. The article said arabica fell to a 3-week low on Thursday and robusta to a 2-month low, tied to expectations that Brazil’s coffee harvest would add supply. It also noted that most warehouses in Brazil were no longer accepting new coffee deliveries as storage space fills up—an environment that can slow physical movement while growers may hold back product in anticipation of better prices.
Still, harvest progress has been uneven, with reports indicating the crop is advancing but lagging last year. Data cited from Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op showed 87.5% of the harvest complete as of Aug. 21, improving week over week but slightly behind the same point a year earlier. Additional figures cited from Safras & Mercado suggested the 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of Aug. 12, compared with 97% at the same time last year and a 5-year average of 94%. For arabica specifically, the report said the harvest was 86% complete, behind last year’s 95%.
Weather, production and trade flows
Coffee prices also drew support from geopolitical and weather risk factors, though not uniformly across arabica and robusta.
For arabica, the market had additional backing linked to a devastating earthquake earlier this month in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans. The article noted that the quake affected the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production. According to a Bloomberg report cited by the article, Colombia has partially resumed exports through the Buenaventura port that handles most of the country’s coffee shipments, but said port traffic remains intermittent and limited.
Beyond Colombia, concerns about an El Niño pattern were described as a bullish driver for prices into next season. The market wrap cited a view from trader Commercial that El Niño could delay rains in Brazil during September and October—months when tree flowering typically occurs—potentially affecting Brazil’s 2026/27 crop. The article also referenced the U.S. Climate Prediction Center indicating that the El Niño forming across the equatorial Pacific is expected to be among the strongest in more than 75 years.
That said, the report also flagged a countervailing factor: below-average rainfall in Brazil that could accelerate harvesting. It cited Somar Meteorologia data for the week ended Aug. 16 showing only 0.6 mm of rain in Minas Gerais, a key arabica region, equivalent to 11% of the historical average. Faster harvests can increase near-term availability, generally bearish for front-month futures.
For robusta, supply and trade data from Vietnam added to the downward bias. The article cited official statistics indicating Vietnam’s coffee exports rose year over year during the first seven months of 2026 and that robusta production is projected to increase in 2025/26. Higher exports and output typically weigh on robusta prices by increasing global supply.
USDA outlook and what to watch next
The report also referenced the latest USDA biannual forecast, which was described as bearish for coffee prices. According to figures cited in the article, USDA expected global coffee output in the 2026–27 season to rise to a record 189.7 million bags, with arabica production projected to increase more than robusta. The same overview said ending stocks were expected to rise to 26.3 million bags, a build that can limit upside potential—especially for markets already facing robust supply signals.
Looking ahead, traders are likely to continue monitoring Brazil’s weather and harvest pace, as well as ongoing inventory movements at ICE. The market will also have to balance those factors against seasonal weather risk tied to El Niño and any updates to Colombia export flows after the earthquake. Investors should watch for additional USDA data releases and further information on harvest progress and rainfall patterns in Brazil, alongside any new developments in global robusta exports.
