Cotton futures and key benchmark prices fell on Friday morning, extending weakness after traders moved lower late Thursday. Export sales data also pointed to slower demand and new-crop activity, reinforcing a cautious tone for the 2025/26 crop outlook.
By early Friday, cotton futures were down roughly 95 to 105 points from Thursday’s close across the front months, while crude oil edged higher and the U.S. dollar index was also up.
Key takeaways
- Price move: October 2026 cotton slid to a Friday morning level about 105 points lower versus Thursday’s finish, with other contracts also down around 95 to 105 points.
- Catalyst: U.S. export sales showed 2025/26 purchases at a marketing-year low for the week ended July 9, alongside the weakest new-crop sales figure since September.
- Market implication: Lower near-term demand signals are pressuring futures and keeping upside limited until stronger shipment or sales momentum returns.
- Related pricing: The Cotlook A Index and Forward A both declined, while the Adjusted World Price was raised, a mixed set of signals for global pricing.
- Supply metrics watch: ICE certified stocks fell further via decertification, but the tape remained focused on demand softness.
What drove cotton’s decline
The immediate driver of Friday’s weakness was the latest U.S. export sales report, which traders treated as confirmation that demand for the 2025/26 crop is not yet accelerating.
2025/26 export sales: The report showed 34,360 running bales sold for the 2025/26 marketing year in the week of July 9—described as a marketing-year low. Bangladesh was the largest buyer with 10,600 running bales, while Vietnam purchased 5,800 running bales.
New-crop activity: New crop sales totaled just 4,075 running bales for that week, the lowest level since September, with most of that volume reportedly headed to Pakistan.
Shipments remained softer: Shipments were tallied at 214,893 running bales, down 10.8% from the same week last year, adding to concerns that export flow has not yet strengthened in line with market hopes.
Separately, Vietnam has remained the leading buyer year-to-date, at more than 4.2 million bales, but the weekly data suggested that momentum in fresh orders has slowed.
Market reaction across benchmarks and futures
Futures were lower at the end of Thursday’s session and continued to drift down on Friday morning.
- October 2026 cotton: Closed at 77.69, down 287 points on Thursday, and was about 105 points lower early Friday.
- December 2026 cotton: Closed at 79.3, down 225 points on Thursday, and was roughly 95 points lower early Friday.
- March 2027 cotton: Closed at 80.7, down 223 points on Thursday, and was about 98 points lower early Friday.
Beyond the futures complex, cotton’s global benchmarks also slid. The Cotlook A Index fell by 75 points to 89.95 cents on Wednesday, while the Forward A dropped by 80 points to 91.80 cents.
On the pricing side, the Adjusted World Price was increased by 3.52 cents on Thursday to 65.37 cents per pound—an element that can sometimes support sentiment by signaling upward movement in the benchmark formula. Still, the near-term direction in futures and the weekly sales slowdown outweighed that support.
Stocks and supply signals: decertification continues
ICE certified cotton stocks declined further, which typically reflects tighter deliverable supplies at the exchange warehouse level. The certified stock total fell by 20,673 bales on July 14 through decertification, bringing certified stocks to 100,612 bales.
While the supply metric points to continued reduction in certified inventory, the market’s focus on demand—particularly the weak weekly sales figures for both the 2025/26 marketing year and new-crop—kept the dominant tone negative for futures.
Bigger picture: what to watch next
With cotton prices moving in step with softer export demand signals, traders will likely look next for confirmation in follow-on weeks of whether new-crop sales can recover and whether shipments can stabilize.
Investors should also monitor additional U.S. export data releases and the ongoing relationship between cotton benchmarks and the Adjusted World Price adjustment, as well as broader risk factors reflected in the dollar and energy markets. The next set of developments in weekly sales and shipping activity will be key to determining whether this pullback extends or transitions into a consolidation.
