Cotton futures traded higher in midday activity on Thursday, with contracts up by roughly 125 to 188 points. The broader commodity tape showed modest softness, as crude oil slipped 38 cents per barrel and the U.S. dollar index fell 0.879, factors that can influence demand expectations and price competitiveness across export markets.
Attention stayed on U.S. export activity, where weekly data indicated cotton sales were mixed across marketing years. While sales for the 2025/26 crop year totaled 29,719 bales for the week ending July 23—reported as a marketing-year low—new-crop commitments for 2025/26 were at a marketing-year high at 352,447 bales. Shipments were recorded at 233,795 bales.
Key takeaways
- Cotton futures: Up across major delivery months in Thursday’s midday trading, with gains spanning about 125 to 188 points.
- Catalyst: U.S. export sales data for the week of July 23 showed a marketing-year low for 2025/26 sales alongside a marketing-year high in new-crop business.
- Pricing context: The Cotlook A Index fell to 89.75 cents per pound on July 29, while the Adjusted World Price was trimmed to 63.82 cents per pound in the most recent update.
- Market implication: Investors are weighing uneven export developments against stable supply indicators such as ICE certified stocks.
What drove cotton higher
Thursday’s firming in cotton contracts appears tied to positioning around export sales and shipment flows. According to the export sales data for the week of July 23, cotton sales for 2025/26 totaled 29,719 bales, described as a marketing-year low for that period. However, the same week included 352,447 bales of reported new crop business, flagged as a marketing-year high—suggesting that while certain segments of demand were light, overall fresh commitments remained strong.
Shipments totaled 233,795 bales in the week, adding support by confirming that export movement continued even as the timing of sales commitments varied across marketing-year reporting.
Related signals from pricing and inventories
Alongside futures, multiple reference points moved in ways that help frame the market’s valuation and supply-demand balance. The Cotlook A Index declined by 35 points on July 29 to 89.75 cents per pound. In addition, the Adjusted World Price was reduced by 155 points last week to 63.82 cents per pound, with an updated figure scheduled later on Thursday.
Supply data also stayed steady at the margin. ICE certified cotton stocks were unchanged on Wednesday, remaining at 90,699 bales. When inventories hold firm while export activity shows a mix of new commitments and shipment continuation, traders typically focus on whether demand strength can offset softer pricing signals in global benchmarks.
Market reaction across the curve
By midday on Thursday, the market was higher across key contract months. October 2026 cotton was up 188 points at 79.9. December 2026 cotton rose 136 points to 80.89. March 2027 cotton gained 126 points to 82.4.
The spread of gains across maturities suggests the move was not confined to a single delivery month, pointing instead to broad repricing of expectations—potentially tied to the interpretation of export data and the direction of the U.S. dollar and energy complex.
Bigger picture: exports, the dollar, and global benchmarks
Thursday’s price action sits at the intersection of U.S. export reporting and macro drivers. A lower U.S. dollar index can improve price competitiveness for U.S. cotton in overseas markets, while crude oil weakness can reflect softer broader risk sentiment and may feed into commodity-related positioning.
Still, investors are navigating conflicting signals: the weekly export report highlighted a marketing-year low in one sales category, contrasted with marketing-year highs in new-crop commitments, while global reference prices—such as the Cotlook A Index and the Adjusted World Price—were lower in the latest readings. With ICE certified stocks steady, the market’s near-term direction may hinge on whether future export weeks continue to show the same strength in new crop business.
Looking ahead, traders will likely watch the next round of U.S. export updates and any revisions to pricing benchmarks, along with ongoing currency and energy moves that can affect broader demand expectations. Additional supply and demand signals from subsequent reports and scheduled market updates could determine whether cotton’s midday gains extend into the close.
