Corn futures fell across most contract months on Thursday, with losses ranging from 3 1/2 to 5 3/4 cents. July corn managed to hold a small gain, while the broader market edged lower as traders weighed USDA export activity against weather-related expectations in key growing regions.
According to USDA data cited by the report, the market saw a private export sale totaling 285,775 metric tons of corn to Mexico for new crop shipment. The following morning, the weekly USDA Export Sales report showed sales volumes for multiple destinations and highlighted a stronger-than-usual pace for the 2025/26 marketing year at that point in the season.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Corn futures declined in most nearby and forward months, while July finished up after holding onto a 4 3/4 cent gain during the session.
- Catalyst: USDA-reported export sales supported demand, but the futures complex leaned lower overall.
- Weather factor: NOAA’s outlook pointed to heavier precipitation risk over parts of the Western Corn Belt and spreading rainfall into the central U.S. late in the week and into early next week.
- Implication: Investors are balancing near-term export flows with evolving moisture prospects for crop development.
What drove the move
Trading on Thursday leaned negative across most corn contracts, with the losses cited by the report spanning 3 1/2 to 5 3/4 cents. July corn, however, remained an exception, holding a modest gain as other contracts slipped.
The export side of the ledger offered support. The report said USDA logged a daily private export sale of 285,775 MT of corn to Mexico for new crop shipment. In addition, the weekly USDA Export Sales report showed the week of June 11 bringing 1.157 million MT for the 2025/26 marketing year. That level was described as a four-week high for the 2025/26 marketing year and 28% higher than the comparable week last year.
Destination flows were also mixed but broadly international. Spain led with 262,900 MT, while the report cited 259,800 MT sold to Mexico and 249,900 MT sold to Japan. New crop commitments added up to 519,035 MT for the week, bringing total full-year new crop commitments to 4.643 MMT, reported as 41.2% above the same period last year.
Market reaction and contract closes
The report’s cited settlement levels show a broadly lower complex:
- Jul 26 corn closed at $4.17 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents.
- Nearby cash was $3.86 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents.
- Sep 26 corn closed at $4.25 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
- Dec 26 corn closed at $4.44, down 4 3/4 cents.
- New crop cash was $3.99 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents.
Despite the export updates, the futures market still ended the session with widespread declines, suggesting traders were not willing to fully bid up prices on sales data alone—especially with weather signals shifting in the background.
Bigger picture: weather watch and calendar
Weather forecasts were a notable feature of the day’s setup. The report said the NOAA 7-day forecast calls for heavier precipitation totals centered more in the Western Corn Belt over the next week. It also pointed to weekend rainfall in NE/KS, with the activity spreading into IA and MO. Additional rainfall was expected along the I-states to OH late weekend and into early next week.
For corn traders, precipitation timing can quickly alter expectations around planting progress, yield potential, and crop stress—particularly when forecasts suggest a broader wet window. In this context, the market’s lower close across most contracts indicates that improved moisture odds may have offset at least part of the demand-support narrative from USDA export figures.
Meanwhile, trading and government activity were expected to pause for the Juneteenth holiday, with the report noting a normal open on Sunday night.
Looking ahead, investors will likely focus on how the next NOAA updates refine the rainfall map across key growing states and whether USDA export reports continue to show sustained demand into the 2025/26 marketing year. With the market closed on Friday for the Juneteenth holiday, the next full trading session may bring renewed attention to precipitation trends and any additional export announcements.
