Corn futures were modestly higher on Wednesday, with most contracts up by 2 to 3 cents as markets weighed a mixed picture for ethanol demand and U.S. export activity. The U.S. cash corn benchmark rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.09, while key maturities edged higher across the curve.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Corn futures gained small increments, with nearby cash corn up to $4.09.
- Catalyst: Weekly ethanol production eased, while ethanol inventories increased, alongside upcoming attention on Export Sales data.
- Key implication: Lower ethanol output did not tighten stock levels as quickly as traders may have expected, keeping near-term corn sentiment steady rather than sharply bullish.
Ethanol data tempered supply tightness
U.S. ethanol figures from the Energy Information Administration showed production in the week ending January 2 fell by 22,000 barrels per day week over week to 1.098 million barrels per day. Despite the output decline, ethanol stocks rose by 708,000 barrels to 22.652 million barrels, suggesting demand for ethanol feedstock was not supporting a quick drawdown in inventories.
Within the same EIA release, exports were down by 35,000 barrels per day to 113,000 barrels per day. More notably for corn demand expectations, refiner inputs of ethanol dropped by 117,000 barrels per day to 771,000 barrels per day. The report said this pattern aligns with seasonality once the holiday period passes.
Traders look ahead to Export Sales and Brazil flows
Attention is turning to Export Sales data scheduled for Thursday. Traders are positioned around expectations for 2025/26 corn sales of 0.7 to 1.5 million metric tons in the week of January 1. For 2026/27, the market is looking for sales in the range of 0 to 100,000 metric tons during the same period.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s trade ministry reported corn export activity in December at 6.128 million metric tons—up 43.6% from the prior year and up 21.75% from November. Those figures add another data point for global supply expectations as buyers assess how quickly South American shipments may flow into the market.
Where prices stood across the corn complex
- Mar 26 corn: $4.47, up 3 cents
- Nearby cash corn: $4.09, up 2 3/4 cents
- May 26 corn: $4.53 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents
- Jul 26 corn: $4.59 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents
What to watch next
Next for corn traders is Thursday’s Export Sales release, where reported volumes for 2025/26 and 2026/27 could shift expectations for demand and near-term balance. Investors will also likely continue monitoring ethanol production and inventory trends from the EIA, particularly the extent to which seasonal changes translate into firmer or looser corn usage at refiners.
