Corn futures were marginally higher in early Tuesday trading after a softer session on Monday, when contracts across the board retreated. By late morning, price gains were modest, while the broader complex remained pressured by a firmer outlook for weather and weakness in crude oil.
According to the latest data, Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US crop advanced faster than the five-year average, and USDA’s export shipment updates indicated weekly corn exports slowed versus both the prior week and the same period last year. In parallel, NOAA’s near-term precipitation outlook suggested light-to-moderate rainfall across key parts of the Corn Belt, adding to the constructive weather narrative.
Key takeaways
- Corn price move: Nearby and deferred futures were slightly higher in Tuesday morning trade after Monday declines, including a lower close for September and December contracts.
- Catalyst: The market weighed an improving weather forecast alongside losses in crude oil and incremental updates on crop development and export flows.
- Export and crop signals: USDA reported silking ahead of the five-year average and condition ratings easing, while weekly export shipments declined year over year and versus the prior week.
- Implication: With near-term rainfall expectations improving and demand signals mixed, traders are likely to stay focused on weather developments and the next round of export and crop updates.
What drove the move
Monday’s trading was driven by a combination of weather expectations and energy-linked sentiment. The report said corn contracts were pressured as the weather outlook improved and crude oil fell by $7.40. That backdrop carried into Monday’s pricing, with declines led by the front months and open interest falling by 14,035 contracts, mainly in September and December.
Crop conditions also played a role. Data from Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 78% of the US corn crop had reached the silking stage by July 26, ahead of the 5-year average by 4 percentage points. The report also indicated 25% of the crop was in the dough stage.
However, the same report showed some deterioration in overall crop quality. US condition ratings fell 4% to 63% in good to excellent condition, and the Brugler500 index dropped 11 points to 361.
Market reaction in futures and cash
According to the market summary, the US national average cash corn price was down 12 1/2 cents to $4.21 1/4. Tuesday’s early trade showed only fractional gains, consistent with a market that is not fully reversing Monday’s move.
- Sep 26 corn closed at $4.51 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents, and was up 3/4 cent in current trade.
- Nearby cash was $4.21 1/4, down 12 1/2 cents.
- Dec 26 corn closed at $4.74, down 13 1/2 cents, and was up 3/4 cent in current trade.
- Mar 27 corn closed at $4.89 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents, and was up 3/4 cent in current trade.
- New crop cash was $4.25 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents.
Demand watch: export shipments and near-term weather
Demand signals were mixed. USDA’s FGIS data showed weekly corn export shipments of 1.488 MMT (58.58 mbu) for the week ending July 23. That total was 7.74% below the prior week and 2.88% lower than the same week a year earlier.
Mexico was identified as the top destination at 454,201 MT, followed by Japan with 252,204 MT and Colombia with 236,112 MT. For the 2025/26 marketing year, USDA reported marketing year exports of 75.324 MMT (2.965 bbu), which was 24.81% above the comparable period last year.
Weather also remained central to trader focus. The NOAA 7-day QPF showed 1 to 2 inches of precipitation across much of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois over the next week, with Eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska and parts of southern Minnesota also expected to see 1 to 2 inches. The forecast called for lighter totals in Ohio and Indiana.
What to watch next
With Tuesday trading still reflecting Monday’s downside pressure, investors are likely to monitor further weather updates for the Corn Belt, plus the next crop progress and USDA export shipment data for evidence of whether demand is stabilizing. Crude oil direction may also continue to influence the commodity complex, given its role in Monday’s move.
