Corn futures traded lower across most contracts at midday Tuesday, giving back Monday’s gains as crude oil prices slipped and weighed on broader commodities sentiment. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price was down 7 3/4 cents at $4.12.
Key takeaways
- Corn futures were broadly lower by midday Tuesday, with most contracts off 7 to 8 cents.
- Crop Progress showed 90% of the US corn crop had reached silking by August 2, with 43% in the dough stage—both favorable versus normal timing.
- Quality/conditions eased as good-to-excellent ratings slipped to 61%, adding pressure despite progress in crop development.
- Export and ethanol data were mixed: June exports reached a monthly record, while corn used for ethanol production also declined from the prior month.
- Implication: Near-term pricing appears vulnerable to improving crop development, even as demand data stays supported.
What drove the move
Commodity-linked weakness set the tone. Corn futures were trading with 7 to 8 cent losses across most contracts at midday Tuesday after Monday’s upward move. Crude oil fell $4.30, adding downward pressure to the complex.
Fundamentally, the weekly Crop Progress report pointed to steady advancement in crop development. By August 2, 90% of the US corn crop was silking, while 43% was in the dough stage—5 percentage points ahead of the normal pace. The report also cited crop progress with the crop 6% dented.
However, condition indicators softened. US crop condition ratings declined by another 2 percentage points to 61% in good to excellent condition, according to the weekly update. The weekly Brugler500 index fell 5 points to 356.
Declines were noted across multiple states, including North Dakota (-26), Kansas (-20), Nebraska (-15), Minnesota (-6), Wisconsin (-5), South Dakota (-4), and Missouri (-1). Some improvement appeared in parts of the western and eastern belt, with Iowa (+2), Illinois (+4), Indiana (+1), and Ohio (+4) showing gains.
Supply demand signals from exports and ethanol
Data released earlier in the day provided a separate demand lens. Grain crushing figures from Monday showed 466.71 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production in June. That was down 1.5% from the previous month, though up 4.43% year over year to a record June total.
The marketing year production figure was reported at 4.595 billion bushels, which was 76 million bushels above last year.
Export data also remained a bright spot. June corn exports totaled 7.926 million metric tons (312 million bushels), according to Census data released this morning. The report said the monthly total was a record for June and 9.29% higher than May.
Distillers exports were listed at 1.099 million metric tons, described as an 11-year high for June and the largest since October. Ethanol shipments were also reported at a record 206.06 million gallons, up 8.65% from May.
Where prices stood at midday
- September corn: $4.41 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents
- Nearby cash corn: $4.12 1/1, down 7 3/4 cents
- December 2026 corn: $4.64 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents
- March 27 corn: $4.80 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents
- New crop cash: $4.15 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents
Bigger picture for corn markets
The market’s near-term direction appears to be balancing two competing forces: crop development that is ahead of schedule versus quality ratings that have slipped. With 90% of corn silking and dough-stage progress above normal, investors may be more willing to price in improved yield potential—so long as conditions do not deteriorate further.
At the same time, demand indicators—including record June corn export volumes and record ethanol shipments—offer support and help limit downside. Still, Monday’s gains were being reduced as Tuesday trading reflected a broader commodities risk-off tone tied to crude oil weakness.
Attention is likely to shift next to any follow-through in US crop conditions and to additional weekly weather and demand data. Traders will also watch upcoming updates that could change the balance between faster crop progress and any emerging stress signals across key growing regions.
