Bitcoin and Ethereum held steady on Thursday after Citigroup raised its 12-month outlook for both crypto assets, a Wall Street boost that reinforced a rebound that has gained momentum since July. The updated forecasts come as investors weigh whether institutional demand is broadening again—particularly through exchange-traded funds—while macro conditions, especially high government bond yields, continue to cap risk appetite.
According to Citigroup, its Bitcoin target climbed to $113,000 from $82,000, and its Ether forecast rose to $3,028 from $2,240. Market pricing at the time of the report had Bitcoin around $84,000 and Ethereum near $2,700.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Bitcoin and Ethereum were broadly holding their levels after Citi’s upgrade, with Bitcoin around $84,000 and Ethereum near $2,700.
- Catalyst: Citigroup lifted its 12-month targets for both assets, citing stronger market activity, an improving macro backdrop, and renewed ETF inflows.
- Key implication: Investors will focus on whether ETF demand becomes more consistent and whether bond yields remain a headwind.
- Regulatory overhang: Progress on US crypto legislation remains uncertain, keeping policy risk in the background.
What drove the move
Citigroup’s upgrade centers on an expectation that institutional participation will gradually return. The bank forecast net crypto inflows of about $5 billion over the next 12 months, driven by advisers and brokerages slowly increasing allocations. Citi also pointed to a shift from its more cautious stance earlier in the year, when it assumed little or no fresh ETF-driven demand.
ETF activity data cited by the report suggests inflows have supported the rebound: According to Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted about $2.39 billion between September 21 and September 25. During the same period, Ethereum funds drew roughly $690 million. Citi’s base case appears to treat those flows as a sign of stabilizing demand rather than a one-off surge.
The move also lands against a strong performance backdrop for the broader rally. The report said Bitcoin gained more than 40% during the third quarter, its best quarter since late 2024, while Ethereum has outpaced that momentum over the past three months.
Market reaction and what the targets imply
Citi’s updated targets imply meaningful upside from the current levels described in the report. On the bank’s estimates, Bitcoin would have roughly 35% upside and Ether about 12% over a 12-month horizon. However, the report emphasized that the forecasts still suggest a recovery path rather than an immediate push to prior highs.
While the revised Bitcoin target of $113,000 is bullish, it remains below the record above $126,000 reached in October 2025. That gap matters for investors because it frames Citi’s view as a gradual normalization after the sell-off rather than a straight-line move to new peak levels.
The biggest headwinds: yields, ETF consistency, and regulation
Despite Citi’s upgrade, the report highlighted a macro constraint tied to interest rates. The bank’s optimistic tone does not fully erase the risk from the bond market—particularly the impact of persistently high Treasury yields. The article pointed to the 10-year US Treasury yield hovering near 5.3% and described it as the highest level since 2002.
According to the report, softer US inflation data on Wednesday initially encouraged a bid in Bitcoin, pushing it briefly above $85,500. But the move faded as yields stayed elevated. Dan Khus, chief analyst at LVRG Research, was cited as saying that while easing inflation can spur risk-taking, the durability of high Treasury yields has made it harder for Bitcoin’s breakout attempt above $85,000 to hold.
The report also noted that ETF demand has been uneven. It cited Farside Investors data showing Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $148.7 million on September 30 after modest inflows in the prior two sessions. Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $59.6 million on the same day.
Regulation remains another unresolved variable. The report said the US Senate failed last month to advance the Clarity Act, falling short of the 60 votes needed after a 50–49 procedural outcome. Citi indicated that subsequent SEC rule announcements reduced some of the negative reaction, but it also suggested the route to broad market-structure legislation remains narrow.
Additionally, the report referenced commentary from Giottus chief executive Vikram Subburaj, who said that maintaining the $82,000–$82,500 area is important, with ETF flows and upcoming US economic data likely to determine whether buyers can reassert control.
Bigger picture: what investors will watch next
With Citi adding another institutional endorsement, the near-term debate for crypto markets is likely to shift toward durability—whether ETF inflows become steadier and whether rates ease enough to remove the pressure created by high Treasury yields. Investors also remain attentive to US policy progress, given the ongoing uncertainty around comprehensive digital asset regulation.
Looking ahead, the next catalysts to monitor are continued spot ETF flow trends and upcoming US economic data that could influence Treasury yields. Any further signals from regulators—particularly developments that affect market-structure expectations—may also be central to how investors price risk in Bitcoin and Ethereum over the coming weeks.
