Cardano shares are holding near the lower end of a key support zone on Monday after a selloff that pushed the token down more than 10% over the prior week. Trading around the $0.175 area, ADA is struggling to regain key moving-average levels as large holders continue to reduce exposure and derivatives positioning turns increasingly bearish.
Market data suggests that if sellers press the price below the $0.173 support region, the downside could broaden—particularly given recent weakness in momentum indicators and funding rates in perpetual futures.
Key takeaways
- Price move: ADA is trading near $0.175 after losing more than 10% in the previous week.
- Catalyst: Large-holder selling, along with bearish derivatives positioning, is reinforcing downside risk.
- Key level: A break below $0.173 could expose further weakness toward lower support.
- Implication: Until ADA reclaims key moving averages near $0.179 and the broader resistance band around $0.194–$0.195, rebounds may face renewed selling.
What drove the move in Cardano
On-chain supply data points to continued distribution from some of Cardano’s largest participants. According to Santiment’s Supply Distribution data, wallets holding between one million and 10 million ADA, as well as those controlling between 10 million and 100 million ADA, have collectively offloaded about 200 million ADA since August 11.
The same dataset shows that smaller whales have been less supportive of a rebound. Addresses holding between 100,000 and one million ADA accumulated roughly 10 million ADA over the same period, but this buying appears limited relative to the supply reduction attributed to larger holders.
In derivatives, positioning has also tilted toward further declines. According to CoinGlass, ADA’s long-to-short ratio is 0.92 on Monday, close to the lowest level in more than a month. Because a reading below one implies more short positions than long positions, the data indicates traders are increasingly positioned for additional downside.
CoinGlass data further shows that ADA’s Open Interest-weighted funding rate turned negative on Sunday and stood at -0.0018% on Monday. A negative funding rate typically means short-position holders are paying traders with long positions in perpetual futures, which generally aligns with a bearish market stance.
Market reaction: technicals keep pressure on bulls
Technicals remain a headwind for ADA. The token trades below several key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 50-day EMA at $0.179 acting as near-term resistance. Above that, the 100-day EMA at $0.194 closely overlaps with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.195, forming a thicker resistance cluster.
Momentum indicators continue to reflect seller control. The Relative Strength Index is reported at 35, below the neutral level of 50, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains in negative territory—both consistent with caution among short-term traders.
On the downside, the most immediate support sits at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.173. The article also notes that this zone aligns with a prior area where ADA broke below its trendline, which can increase its technical significance.
A daily close below $0.173 would be a stronger confirmation of downside continuation. If that occurs, the next referenced horizontal support level is $0.150, suggesting that markets may reprice risk lower should current levels fail.
What to watch next for ADA
For a potential stabilization, investors are likely to focus on whether selling pressure begins to ease. The first technical signal cited is a sustained move above the 50-day EMA near $0.179. However, the outlook would likely remain constrained unless ADA can also recover above the $0.194–$0.195 resistance band.
Should that resistance be reclaimed, higher levels—$0.213 and $0.231—could come back into focus. Even then, the medium-term trend would face a major obstacle at the 200-day EMA near $0.249, which is described as a key hurdle for a broader bullish reversal.
Traders monitoring ADA this week will also likely track whether large-holder distribution persists and whether derivatives funding stays negative. Any shift in whale behavior or a move in long-to-short positioning away from bearish territory could determine whether the $0.173 support holds or gives way.
