Cardano’s price fell sharply on Monday, trading around $0.160 after an 11% drop over the prior week. Despite some on-chain signs that large holders are adding to positions during the sell-off, derivatives indicators still point to caution, leaving the near-term outlook for ADA mixed.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Cardano is trading near $0.160 after an 11% weekly decline.
- Catalyst: On-chain data from Santiment shows large wallets increased ADA exposure during the dip, while derivatives metrics remain inconsistent.
- Market implication: Accumulation may support longer-term sentiment, but technical and derivatives signals suggest the downtrend has not clearly reversed.
- Key levels: Near-term resistance is clustered around $0.181 and the $0.202–$0.204 area; main support is around $0.148.
What drove the move
According to on-chain analytics from Santiment, select large Cardano holders increased their ADA holdings during the recent sell-off. The data shows wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA accumulated about 370 million tokens since June 15, indicating sustained interest from the largest cohort.
At the same time, Santiment’s figures suggest a contrasting pattern among smaller “whale-adjacent” groups. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA, as well as those between 1 million and 10 million ADA, reduced their holdings by a combined 10 million tokens over the same period.
Market participants typically interpret this kind of split as confirmation that some long-term players are taking advantage of lower prices, even as other investors reduce exposure. However, the article’s on-chain evidence also does not contradict the broader reality that ADA’s price momentum has remained weak, meaning accumulation has not yet been strong enough to reverse the immediate sell-off.
Derivatives signal caution despite dip-buying
Derivatives positioning has added to the uncertainty. Data cited from CoinGlass shows Cardano’s long-to-short ratio at 0.65, a level approaching the lowest seen in more than a month. With readings below 1 generally associated with bearish sentiment, this suggests many traders may be positioning for additional downside rather than a quick rebound.
However, funding-rate information points in a more balanced direction. The open interest-weighted funding rate for ADA is reported at 0.0050% and has turned slightly positive, implying long positions are beginning to pay shorts. That shift is often associated with a mild bullish bias in derivatives markets.
Taken together, the data indicates a divided market: spot-side accumulation by large holders is not translating into a clear consensus among derivatives traders, who remain split between expecting further weakness and gradually pricing in stabilization.
Technical picture: downtrend still in place
Technically, the article states that Cardano’s 4-hour ADA/USD chart remains bearish. ADA was down roughly 1% over the last 24 hours at the time of reporting, and the token is trading below key moving averages that typically confirm broader downtrends.
The reported levels place ADA at about $0.1602, below the 50-day EMA of $0.204, the 100-day EMA of $0.236, and the 200-day EMA of $0.311. This alignment suggests sellers still control the trend structure, even if short-term momentum is beginning to stabilize.
Momentum indicators were described as mixed rather than decisively bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reported near 41, indicating weak bearish momentum without reaching deeply oversold conditions. At the same time, the MACD is described as showing mild improvement, which can be interpreted as easing downside pressure rather than an outright reversal.
For traders, the article highlights several potential decision points. If ADA rebounds, immediate resistance is cited near $0.181, with a larger barrier between $0.202 and $0.204 where the 50-day EMA sits. Additional resistance is also flagged in the $0.230–$0.240 range where multiple technical levels overlap.
On the downside, the primary support area is reported around $0.148. The article warns that a breakdown below this zone could accelerate selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish structure.
Bigger picture: accumulation vs. execution
The central theme from the reported data is the gap between accumulation and market direction. On-chain signals indicate that at least one major cohort of whales has been adding ADA during the dip, which can help support sentiment if price starts to stabilize. But the derivatives picture—especially a long-to-short ratio still tilted toward bearish positioning—suggests traders have not yet converted that accumulation into a sustained upside bet.
Investors watching ADA may focus on whether price can reclaim and hold above the $0.202–$0.204 area (the 50-day EMA region cited in the report) and whether derivatives positioning continues to improve from its current, divided state. Near-term momentum will likely depend on follow-through—particularly around the reported support near $0.148—while broader market catalysts such as risk appetite and interest-rate expectations also remain key drivers for crypto-linked assets.
