Bitcoin hovered near $64,100 on Wednesday, testing a pivotal technical level as investors weighed improving US-Iran diplomatic prospects and a modest revival in institutional demand. The move comes with risk sentiment supported by expectations for progress around the Strait of Hormuz, while market pricing for Federal Reserve tightening softened after a rebound in oil outlook.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Bitcoin traded near $64,100, edging toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at about $64,650.
- Catalyst: Hopes for a US-Iran interim understanding tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, alongside renewed inflows into US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
- Key implication: A confirmed break above the $64,650 resistance could strengthen the recovery; failure to hold nearby support may leave the bounce vulnerable.
- Rates linkage: Lower expectations for additional September interest-rate increases can improve sentiment for risk assets such as bitcoin.
What drove the move
Bitcoin’s rise was supported by improving geopolitical expectations and shifting macro assumptions. Investors continued to monitor diplomacy between the United States and Iran after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington could reach an agreement with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or Wednesday, aiming to move toward a more normalized posture in the dispute.
Axios reported that the US, Iran, and Oman were nearing an interim agreement, with US officials targeting a Wednesday announcement. The proposal, according to the report, would establish a temporary 60-day arrangement between Oman and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of reopening the waterway would likely reduce concerns about disruptions to global energy supply and ease some of the geopolitical uncertainty weighing on broader markets.
Energy and rates also contributed to the tone. OPEC+ decided on Sunday to increase oil production from September, which pushed crude prices to their lowest level since July 13. Lower oil prices can temper inflation expectations and, in turn, reduce pressure for further Federal Reserve tightening.
That expectation is reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool, which showed markets pricing a 58.9% probability of a September rate increase, down from 64.7% on Tuesday. With fewer rate hikes expected, the US dollar outlook can weaken and risk appetite can improve—factors that typically benefit assets like bitcoin.
Institutional demand gains attention
Alongside macro and geopolitics, investors focused on evidence of renewed institutional buying through regulated products. Data from CoinGlass on spot bitcoin ETF flows showed the funds attracted $211.50 million on Tuesday, following $170.09 million in net inflows on Monday. Combined inflows across the two sessions totaled $381.58 million.
While two consecutive days of inflows signal improving demand, traders appeared cautious about whether the buying is sustainable. The broader takeaway from market commentary was that ETF inflows would need to persist through the week to confirm a more durable shift rather than a short-lived rebound.
Market reaction and technical levels investors are watching
On the chart, bitcoin is trading slightly below the 50-day EMA near $64,650. Although the price has recovered, the technical posture remains mildly bearish because bitcoin is still below several key moving averages. The 100-day EMA at $67,079 and the 200-day EMA at $72,649 form an overhead resistance zone that could limit upside progress if buyers fail to push the price higher.
Momentum indicators are mixed rather than decisively bullish. The Relative Strength Index is around 53 on the four-hour chart, suggesting balance between buyers and sellers. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains below the zero line, indicating that bearish pressure has not fully dissipated.
Investors are therefore treating the $64,650 area as an immediate decision point. A sustained daily close above the 50-day EMA would weaken the short-term bearish outlook and could open the door toward the 100-day EMA at $67,079. If buying pressure extends, the next upside reference becomes the 200-day EMA at $72,649.
On the downside, initial support sits near $64,004. A failure to defend that level could undermine the recovery and expose bitcoin to renewed selling below its recent trading range.
Bigger picture
The near-term direction for bitcoin appears to hinge on two crosscurrents: whether geopolitical risk premium continues to fade with potential progress around the Strait of Hormuz, and whether market pricing for US rates keeps moving toward fewer hikes. With crude prices easing and ETF inflows regaining momentum, bulls have support—but the technical picture still requires confirmation above the $64,650 resistance to establish a stronger trend.
Traders will likely watch for continued signs in spot ETF flow data and any updates on US-Iran negotiations, alongside upcoming macro releases and Federal Reserve-related signals that could further adjust expectations for September policy.
