Bitcoin climbed back above $61,000 after weaker-than-expected US employment data shifted market expectations toward a more cautious Federal Reserve path. According to market data and Yahoo Finance, the rebound lifted the token from Wednesday’s low near $57,750, as investors re-evaluated the timing of potential rate increases.
In the same stretch, gold also moved higher, while West Texas Intermediate crude stayed below $70 following comments from Qatar’s Foreign Ministry that talks between US and Iranian officials showed positive progress, easing concerns about disruptions to oil supply. The US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet remained unchanged at $6.7 trillion, but market participants increasingly linked softer labour and inflation pressures to the prospect of additional liquidity support.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Bitcoin recovered above $61,000 after trading down to about $57,750 earlier in the week.
- Catalyst: June nonfarm payroll growth came in at 57,000—well below the 113,000 forecast—with revisions lowering April and May totals by a combined 74,000 jobs.
- Rates implication: CME FedWatch Tool data showed the probability of a September rate increase fell to 54% from 64%.
- Cross-market reaction: Gold rose; crude held below $70 as oil supply concerns eased on US-Iran talk updates.
- Next focus: Investors are likely to watch further labour and inflation readings for confirmation of a softer Fed trajectory.
What drove the move
The main trigger for Bitcoin’s rebound was the US labour market report. The report said nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, missing economists’ expectations of 113,000. It also revised April and May payroll figures lower by a combined 74,000 jobs, reinforcing concerns that employment momentum is slowing.
According to CME FedWatch Tool data, those changes reduced the market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase by September to 54% from 64% a day earlier. That repricing matters for rate-sensitive assets because a less hawkish outlook can improve risk appetite and expectations for future financial conditions.
Beyond the Fed’s immediate posture, the report period also coincided with renewed attention on liquidity. While the Federal Reserve currently allows up to $40 billion in monthly purchases of short-term Treasuries and bonds, market participants have increasingly tied softer employment and easing inflation pressures to the possibility of additional support. Historically, according to the article, such environments have tended to benefit “scarce assets,” including Bitcoin and gold.
Market reaction across crypto and tech
Bitcoin’s bounce arrived alongside weakness in parts of the artificial intelligence complex. The article reported that shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials each fell more than 9% during Thursday’s session, reviving discussion around whether capital could rotate away from some crowded technology themes.
In crypto-specific commentary, a CryptoQuant contributor (gaah_im, via an X post) said Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has dropped to the lowest level since 2022. The contributor argued that the share of Bitcoin supply in profit relative to total circulating supply has turned negative—a condition that has historically coincided with market bottoms—while noting such signals do not guarantee future price performance.
The article also pointed to earlier pressure on Bitcoin linked to Strategy’s financing activity. It said shareholders have raised concerns over accelerated share issuance used to refinance debt and to fund preferred stock dividend obligations, even as Strategy reportedly maintained net leverage of around 8% and enterprise value of roughly $56.8 billion.
Rates, oil and the bigger macro setup
Bitcoin’s recovery was not isolated to crypto markets. The article said gold moved higher after the employment report, consistent with the broader effect of rate expectations on non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, crude remained below $70 after Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said US-Iran talks made positive progress, reducing the perceived tail risk of supply disruptions.
For investors, the common thread is the implication for US interest rates. When employment data cools, traders often adjust the expected path for policy tightening and bring forward the likelihood of eventual easing. The FedWatch shift captured by CME’s tool underscored that repricing, even as the central bank’s balance sheet was unchanged at $6.7 trillion.
How technical signals are shaping expectations
Technically, the article reported Bitcoin trading around $61,400 at the time of writing, after rebounding from the prior day’s decline. It said the latest rally carried Bitcoin above the 20-period and 50-period exponential moving averages on the four-hour chart, near $60,470 and $60,571 respectively, creating an initial support layer if prices pull back.
However, the recovery appeared to stall below the 100 EMA near $61,626, which the article described as immediate resistance. It also noted the 200 EMA around $64,141 remains well above the current price, implying the medium-term trend has not yet turned decisively bullish.
Momentum indicators described in the article suggested a near-term decision point. The four-hour Stochastic RSI reportedly rose above 90 into overbought territory, reflecting stronger buying momentum after the macro-driven recovery. At the same time, flattening oscillator lines were cited as a sign that consolidation or a temporary pullback could follow.
Liquidation data added another layer to the debate. The article said the largest concentration of leveraged positions on a 24-hour liquidation heatmap sits between $60,400 and $60,700, potentially acting as a liquidity “pocket” below current prices. It also cited liquidation clusters around $61,900 to $62,000 and again near $62,400 to $62,600, suggesting Bitcoin may be trading between competing liquidity zones. A sustained break above the 100 EMA could expose the higher cluster, while failure to hold above the near-term moving-average area could bring the market back toward the $60,400–$60,700 support band.
Investors will likely watch whether subsequent data confirms the softer labour trend that drove the initial repricing of Fed expectations. Additional releases on employment and inflation, along with guidance signals from the central bank, should be key to determining whether Bitcoin’s recovery can extend beyond the current resistance area.
