Bitcoin reclaimed the $63,000 level, rising about 2.5% over the past 24 hours, but fresh on-chain and ETF data point to a market that may still be struggling to attract sustained spot demand. According to a Glassnode report published Wednesday, several key indicators suggest the earlier rally could be closer to a “bear bounce” than the start of a durable recovery.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Bitcoin is back above $63,000 after a roughly 2.5% daily gain.
- Catalyst: On-chain analytics from Glassnode highlighted deteriorating sentiment and weak demand, while CoinGlass data showed ongoing spot ETF outflows.
- Key implication: Institutional participation appears subdued, and a large share of recent buyers remains underwater—conditions that often slow the transition from bounce to trend.
- What to watch: The report’s levels imply upside remains dependent on renewed buying strength, while failure could reopen downside tests near recent lows.
What drove the move
Bitcoin’s rebound above $63,000 came as traders returned to the market after recent weakness, but the broader evidence from on-chain metrics and exchange-traded products points to caution. Glassnode, in its weekly report, emphasized persistent stress signals using the AVIV Ratio—an indicator that compares Bitcoin’s spot price to its True Market Mean.
Glassnode said the AVIV Ratio fell to a four-year z-score low of -1.09 before edging up to -1.06. While that slight improvement may reflect some stabilization, Glassnode interpreted the lack of a meaningful rebound away from the cyclical low as evidence that fear remains embedded in market sentiment.
The firm also noted that the market’s most recent purchasing cohort has been hit disproportionately. Glassnode cited the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) ratio dropping to 0.81 and later recovering to 0.83, which it said translates into short-term investors still being roughly 17% to 19% underwater on average.
In addition, Glassnode highlighted that coins accumulated in the $78,000 to $82,000 range are now largely held at a loss. It further pointed to weakness in newer participation, noting short-term holder supply in profit fell to 0.6% before rising to 3.3%, far below a four-year average of 55%.
According to Glassnode, more than 95% of the recent buyer cohort remains underwater, and the overall market appears to be moving deeper into a capitulation phase. The report said leverage has largely reset and valuation indicators have reached historically low levels, but the typical demand response seen near long-term bottoms has not yet appeared.
Institutional demand remains a weak link
Beyond on-chain flows, data linked to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds suggests institutions have not stepped in to absorb selling pressure. CoinGlass’s ETF page data showed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $213 million on Wednesday, extending the losing streak to four days.
For investors, that matters because persistent ETF outflows often signal that traditional allocation channels have not regained conviction, even when price temporarily bounces. In this case, the combination of continued ETF outflows and on-chain stress indicators implies that any near-term recovery may face overhead supply from holders who are still sitting on losses.
Market reaction and technical signals
While Bitcoin has been gaining over the past day, the near-term chart read-through remains mixed. The article cited a bearish tone on the BTC/USD 4-hour chart despite the 2.5% increase, with momentum oscillators showing some improvement but not a clean reversal.
Specifically, the RSI was reported at 53, above the neutral 50 threshold, suggesting bearish momentum has been fading. At the same time, the MACD lines were described as still in negative territory, indicating buyers have not fully regained control.
The outlook presented in the report suggests two paths. If the rebound continues, Bitcoin could move toward the 4-hour Transactional Liquidity (TLQ) level at $64,712. The report added that a daily candle close above that area could open the way for further upside toward the $68,000 zone.
Conversely, if recovery stalls, Bitcoin is likely to retest Tuesday’s low of $60,351, with another notable demand zone cited near $59,106.
Bigger picture: what investors should monitor next
For traders and allocators, the key question is whether the market can transition from a sentiment-driven bounce into renewed demand. Glassnode’s framing—emphasizing fear, underwater short-term holders, and the absence of the demand response usually associated with long-term bottoms—suggests the market may still be working through stress.
Looking ahead, investors will likely focus on two catalysts: whether spot Bitcoin ETFs see outflows stabilize or reverse, and whether on-chain measures continue to improve rather than merely fluctuate. Additional confirmation could come from broader crypto market demand data and future technical closes around the levels discussed, especially if price action can hold above the $64,712 region or prove unable to sustain the recovery.
