Bitcoin rallied to a two-week high above $63,000 over the weekend, briefly reaching nearly $63,900, before easing toward about $63,200 on Monday. The rebound followed a shift in expectations around Federal Reserve policy after weaker U.S. economic data, alongside renewed demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and a round of short liquidations that amplified the move.
Still, analysts said the sustainability of the advance remains uncertain as traders weigh whether fresh spot buying can replace the urgency created by forced deleveraging, while additional regulatory friction in Europe and cautious institutional sentiment continue to cap confidence.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Bitcoin peaked near $63,900 over the weekend before slipping toward roughly $63,200 on Monday, leaving most weekly gains intact after a more than 5% rise over seven days.
- Catalyst: A weaker-than-forecast U.S. jobs report reduced expectations for further Fed tightening, while spot Bitcoin ETF flows improved and derivatives liquidations accelerated the rally.
- Market implication: The recovery is being reinforced by positioning-related dynamics, but investors are watching whether spot demand can hold levels now that the squeeze pressure has eased.
- What to watch: Traders are monitoring key technical levels near $62,600–$63,000 and resistance in the mid-$60,000s and above.
What drove the move
According to CoinGecko market data, Bitcoin climbed during the U.S. holiday weekend and pushed above the psychologically important $62,000 level. The move gathered speed as the market unwound a heavily shorted derivatives backdrop from much of June, when Bitcoin traded in a range around $58,000 to $60,000.
The weekend advance was also linked to macro repricing. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 57,000 jobs in June, below forecasts of 110,000. Traders responded by scaling back expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, which eased pressure on Treasury yields and reduced the opportunity cost of holding risk assets.
Policy expectations reinforced that shift. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed markets assigning nearly an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. QCP Capital said softer inflation data would still be needed before markets could fully price a more accommodative policy path.
Institutional demand improved at the same time. QCP Capital reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $224 million of net inflows on Thursday, ending a six-session streak of outflows after about $2.4 billion had previously left the products.
Finally, the rally was magnified by positioning and leverage. CoinGlass data cited about $167 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with broader weekend liquidations exceeding $450 million—figures consistent with a short squeeze dynamic after Bitcoin reclaimed $62,000. Market commentary highlighted that prices moved into a heavily shorted zone, forcing short sellers to cover and accelerating upward momentum during thinner holiday liquidity conditions.
Market reaction and what it suggests
Despite the weekend bounce, price action struggled to build immediately on the higher levels. Traders appeared to be reassessing whether the incremental demand from spot ETFs and other buyers is strong enough to sustain momentum beyond a squeeze-driven rebound.
One reason for caution is that institutional sentiment has remained guarded. Citigroup, according to the report, downgraded its 12-month Bitcoin price targets, cutting them to $82,000 from $112,000. The bank also reduced its net ETF inflow forecasts to zero and warned of a potential structural breakdown in spot demand, citing that June saw a record $4.5 billion pulled from the funds.
Broader liquidity trends in digital assets were also flagged by analysts as a headwind. The article noted that liquidity appears to be rotating toward high-performing technology equities tied to artificial intelligence, leaving crypto more exposed to quick reversals if spot participation does not deepen.
Regulatory developments add another layer of uncertainty. Following the July 1 Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) deadline in Europe, major global exchanges began halting certain unapproved services, spot pairs, and Earn products for EU residents, contributing to localized liquidations. While this was described as a Europe-focused disruption, it underscores the risk that regulatory changes can intermittently affect trading conditions and investor flows.
Technical picture and levels investors are watching
From a technical standpoint, the rebound has improved short-term structure but has not yet confirmed a broader trend reversal. The daily chart described in the report shows Bitcoin recovering from lows near $57,700 and reclaiming the 20-day exponential moving average around $62,400. The daily relative strength index reportedly climbed back to roughly 50, indicating momentum has returned from oversold conditions without moving into an overbought regime.
Bitcoin remains below several higher resistance levels: the 50-day exponential moving average near $65,700, the 100-day exponential moving average around $69,400, and the 200-day exponential moving average near $75,500. Until those areas are reclaimed, the broader daily trend remains tilted downward, according to the analysis.
Volume and retracement levels highlighted in the report suggest near-term decision points. The first hurdle is identified around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $63,600. If buyers can sustain above that region, the next upside areas could include the 0.786 retracement around $65,200 and a prior swing high near $67,300. A broader resistance zone is cited between $69,000 and $75,000, where longer-term moving averages and historical trading activity converge.
On the downside, the report described support around $62,600 to $63,000. Failure to hold that zone could set up another test of $60,000, with recent lows near $57,700 to $58,000 identified as the next major support.
Derivatives positioning: less evidence of fresh leverage
The derivatives data cited in the article suggested limited evidence of excessive leverage building behind the latest recovery. As of press time, Bitcoin open interest was about $21 billion, up about 0.18% over 24 hours, and perpetual contracts accounted for roughly $20 billion of that total. The near-even long-to-short split reported—longs around 50.6% and shorts around 49.3%—implied traders have not yet formed a strong directional consensus after the rebound.
One specific point of focus for analysts is whether Bitcoin can hold the 200-week moving average near $62,600 as support, or whether the move primarily reflects liquidity-driven short covering before a renewed pullback. The article attributed that view to crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades.
With U.S. markets reopening after the holiday weekend, investors will likely focus on whether Bitcoin can hold above the $62,600–$63,000 support area and whether follow-through buying pushes it toward the mid-$60,000 resistance band. Next, attention will turn to upcoming U.S. data releases and Fed signals for confirmation on the path of interest rates, along with continued monitoring of spot ETF flows and any further regulatory impacts in Europe.
