According to data from SoSoValue, US spot bitcoin ETFs drew in $996.4 million in net inflows last week, the strongest weekly total since mid-January and extending a three-week streak of positive momentum as risk appetite improves and geopolitical developments influence institutional activity.
Over the past three weeks, cumulative inflows have surpassed $1.8 billion, underscoring a sustained resurgence in investor demand. The week was led by BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest bitcoin ETF by net assets, which attracted $906 million in net inflows. Morgan Stanley’s newly launched MSBT, which began trading on April 8, posted a weekly net inflow of $71 million in its first full week. Spot Ethereum ETFs also mirrored the trend, registering $275.8 million in inflows — their highest weekly total since Jan. 16. Market data further highlighted the scale of institutional accumulation: more than 25,000 BTC flowed into ETFs over five trading days, with UK-based Farside Investors reporting over $660 million in net inflows on Friday alone — the largest single-day figure since January.
CryptoQuant noted the significance of the recent buying activity: “The latest accumulations by spot ETF firms are significant, as the last time they posted a figure this close was in April 2025, when they added 23,900 units,” the firm wrote in a QuickTake blog post.
What drove the move
The inflows come as traders and institutions reposition around a shifting geopolitical backdrop. Market participants have tied the surge to changing expectations around US-Iran tensions and potential de-escalation. According to The Block, BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei said institutional investors believe a permanent de-escalation in tensions between the US and Iran is imminent and are increasing long positions on bitcoin ETFs as a result.
A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is set to expire on Wednesday, with ongoing diplomacy clouded by conflicting signals. Reports indicate US negotiators are heading to Islamabad for potential talks, while Iranian officials have indicated they would participate only if the US lifts its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite optimism, tensions appear fragile. Reports of a US seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship have added uncertainty to the outlook.
Market reaction
Price action showed only modest moves against the backdrop of the inflows. Bitcoin traded around $75,000, slipping about 0.25% over the past 24 hours, while ether traded near $2,301, down roughly 0.6%. On the ETF holdings front, total BTC held by spot funds is at its highest level since November 2025, underscoring renewed institutional accumulation even as prices pause.
CryptoQuant noted a broader recovery trend in ETF holdings: “Aside from the current milestone, BTC spot ETFs are recovering. The balance held by the firm offering them has been declining since October, but has risen since the February dip.” The data imply renewed demand from institutions within the BTC ETF ecosystem.
From a technical perspective, the cost basis for ETF investors remains a focal point. Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, pointed out that the ETF investor cost basis sits above current prices — around $81,000 — potentially acting as a resistance threshold in the near term and shaping the pace of further inflows.
What analysts are saying
Market observers emphasized that macro conditions will be decisive for sustaining inflows. Mei noted that while retail demand for crypto assets is improving, a durable upward push will likely require additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could bolster risk appetite and support continued ETF purchases in the coming months.
Beyond geopolitics, analysts view the crypto ETF space as resuming a period of institutional engagement as funds seek to diversify macro exposures and hedge against inflation. The combination of persistent ETF inflows and evolving policy signals will be watched closely for signs of a lasting shift in institutional behavior toward digital assets.
Bigger picture
These dynamics sit at the intersection of policy, geopolitics and the evolving ETF ecosystem. The renewed interest in spot BTC and ETH ETFs points to a broader integration of crypto into institutional portfolios, contingent on the trajectory of monetary policy and inflation. If the Federal Reserve signals easier policy later in the year, inflows could persist even without a decisive uplift in spot prices, underscoring the role of policy expectations in shaping crypto demand.
Investors will also monitor diplomatic developments around US-Iran tensions for potential tailwinds or headwinds. Any shift toward de-escalation could bolster risk appetite and crypto ETF purchases, while renewed disruption to shipping routes or broader geopolitical shocks could temper momentum.
Looking ahead, the market will hinge on the Fed’s communications and any further guidance on rate trajectories, alongside fresh data and ongoing geopolitical developments. For crypto ETFs, sustained institutional demand remains a key variable that could determine the next leg of flows and price dynamics in the coming months.
