Alphabet is set to replace Verizon Communications in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, according to a June 23 announcement from S&P Dow Jones Indices. The change underscores the index’s ongoing shift toward technology-heavy business models while setting up a longer-term question for investors: what would it take for a newer, non-traditional company like SpaceX to qualify for Dow membership.
SpaceX, which became public only recently, is frequently discussed as a potential future candidate. However, inclusion in the blue-chip index still depends on more than industry prominence—profitability consistency and market fundamentals are typically central to the Dow’s selection process.
Key takeaways
- Dow change: Alphabet will replace Verizon Communications, reflecting a modernization of the index’s lineup.
- Catalyst: S&P Dow Jones Indices’ scheduled component update announced June 23.
- Implication: Investors should expect the Dow to keep leaning toward durable, scalable technology and platform businesses.
- SpaceX outlook: SpaceX could eventually become a candidate, but it would likely need to demonstrate sustained profitability before the Dow considers it.
- Potential path: A merger scenario involving SpaceX and Tesla is one concept that could strengthen the case for future inclusion.
Alphabet replaces Verizon in a continued modernization push
Alphabet’s addition to the Dow follows S&P Dow Jones Indices’ decision to swap out Verizon Communications, according to the June 23 announcement. The move is part of a broader pattern: since 2020, seven of the Dow’s 30 components have changed.
Among the additions referenced by the announcement period were Honeywell International, Salesforce, Amgen, Amazon, Nvidia, Sherwin-Williams, and now Alphabet. The deletions included RTX, ExxonMobil, Pfizer, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Intel, Dow, and Verizon Communications.
The direction is clear. The Dow continues to add companies associated with high-growth sectors such as cloud and AI-enabled services, while reducing exposure to businesses that no longer match the index’s evolving selection criteria.
What could make SpaceX a future Dow candidate
SpaceX’s argument for eventual Dow consideration centers on three themes: industry leadership, company size, and the possibility of corporate restructuring that could broaden its “blue-chip” profile.
Industry leadership across commercial space and connectivity
One of the strongest points raised for SpaceX is its scale and position in commercial space launch. The article cites that SpaceX conducted 82% of U.S. space launches.
The reasoning is that leadership in launch services can translate into additional long-duration opportunities—particularly if SpaceX’s Starlink connectivity network continues to scale. The potential payoff is not just satellites, but recurring demand tied to global broadband and communications.
That said, Starlink is only one part of the company’s broader strategy. The larger thesis discussed is the push into AI-related capabilities, including ownership of xAI and plans aimed at launching high-capacity “AI compute” satellites supported by major infrastructure projects.
Scale matters, but size alone is not enough
The article also emphasizes that SpaceX is already large by market-cap standards, noting it remains among seven companies in a “$2 trillion club” alongside Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing—even after a significant sell-off.
However, it cautions that market capitalization alone has not guaranteed Dow inclusion in the past. Alphabet reportedly took several years to be added after reaching a multi-trillion valuation. Moreover, the discussion points out that some mega-cap growth names—such as Meta Platforms and Tesla—are not Dow components.
In other words, even if SpaceX maintains or expands its market value, investors should still expect the Dow’s standards to prioritize demonstrated and durable fundamentals, not just headline size.
A potential SpaceX–Tesla merger as an inclusion shortcut
Beyond organic growth, the article highlights one potential accelerator: a merger between SpaceX and Tesla. It argues that the combined market capitalization would exceed that of Microsoft and Amazon, and that the companies’ overlapping technology ambitions could create a broader, more Dow-friendly business mix.
The article links the strategy to existing partnerships and technology connections, including SpaceX’s earlier acquisition of xAI and the role of AI-related systems in Tesla’s operations. It also references Tesla’s involvement with SpaceX initiatives tied to Terafab and energy storage expertise.
The article further notes the Dow has historically adjusted its exposure by adding or removing industries as the index evolves, citing that there is currently no automotive company in the Dow. It references General Motors’ removal in 2009 after bankruptcy protection, illustrating how corporate restructuring can influence index composition.
Why profitability and execution remain central
Despite the ambition behind SpaceX’s long-term plans, the article stresses that Dow membership typically requires consistent profitability. It contrasts SpaceX’s position with past examples of how other tech and non-traditional firms entered the index.
The article notes that Salesforce was added to the Dow in 2020 even though it did not pay a dividend, and Nvidia was added in 2024 when its dividend was very small. In both cases, it argues the companies had been delivering consistent earnings growth.
By comparison, the article states that SpaceX reported a net loss in 2025 and has been borrowing money to finance its growth plans. Those factors would likely complicate any near-term path to inclusion, because the Dow’s selection process has tended to reward companies that can sustain financial performance through business cycles.
Bigger picture: what the Dow’s moves signal for investors
Recent Dow shakeups illustrate that the index is willing to add technology-driven leaders, the article says, and that dividend stability is no longer the sole benchmark for admission. Still, the underlying standard appears to remain steady execution—earnings trajectory, resilience, and the ability to convert ambitious technology themes into scalable, profitable operations.
Alphabet’s replacement of Verizon also provides a tangible marker of where the index is heading: toward companies tied to software platforms, AI, and data-driven services—areas investors have increasingly treated as durable compounders amid shifting macro conditions.
Looking ahead, investors will likely watch for any subsequent Dow component actions from S&P Dow Jones Indices, as well as ongoing proof points from companies under consideration for long-term inclusion. For SpaceX specifically, what matters next is whether it can move from early-stage scale-building to consistent profitability—alongside any corporate developments that could reshape its business profile, including partnerships or merger discussions.
