Archer Aviation shares have slid more than 60% from their 2025 peak and are now trading at roughly the same level seen in 2021, not long after the company went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company. The stock’s prolonged weakness reflects a simple market reality for eVTOL makers: investors still want proof that aircraft certification and commercial readiness can translate into a sustainable business, even as Archer pushes ahead with new aircraft variants.
The company’s latest progress centers on its electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, including Midnight, which it is testing, and Thunder, a version intended for military and industrial applications. However, Archer remains loss-making and is still working toward key regulatory milestones—meaning the valuation debate is likely to stay tethered to execution risk rather than near-term earnings power.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Archer Aviation shares are down more than 60% from their 2025 highs and are back near levels from 2021.
- Catalyst: The company is advancing its eVTOL platforms, including introducing Thunder alongside its Midnight test program.
- Key implication: Despite improved technology progress, commercialization approval and ramp-up spending remain major hurdles, limiting confidence in near-term profitability.
- Competitive pressure: Other eVTOL developers could outpace Archer if they secure better aircraft performance or stronger industry relationships.
What investors are focused on: technology versus timelines
Archer’s core pitch is that its eVTOL aircraft could reshape short-distance air travel and logistics—particularly for routes that are difficult to serve efficiently by road. The company highlights practical use cases for its platforms: Midnight and Thunder are positioned for faster point-to-point movement over short distances, with Thunder also being designed around unmanned operations that could support tasks such as delivering supplies to remote sites like offshore facilities.
That narrative matters to investors because it frames the potential market for aircraft that could operate like air taxis or specialized unmanned cargo platforms. But for a company still in development, the market ultimately prices the gap between demonstration and deployment: when aircraft can be approved, produced at scale, and operated economically enough to generate repeat revenue.
Why the stock has struggled: losses and certification risk
The primary counterweight to Archer’s technology progress is financial performance and regulatory timing. The company continues to operate at a loss and is expected to remain in that phase while it works through the steps needed to obtain commercial approval for its eVTOL aircraft. Even if Thunder does not require the same level of approvals as Midnight, the company still faces the broader challenge of moving from testing to production and delivery.
Investors also point to the cost structure typical of early-stage aviation programs. After approval, Archer would still need to spend substantial sums to ramp up manufacturing and operational readiness. That makes the path to cash generation dependent not only on technical milestones, but also on how much capital the company must raise and how execution unfolds over multiple quarters.
Market reaction: a “cheap” valuation may still mean uncertainty
Because Archer’s shares have fallen sharply from prior highs, some investors may view the stock as having rerated lower despite meaningful progress on its development roadmap. The argument for “cheap” becomes straightforward when comparing today’s price to prior trading levels: the stock has given back a large portion of its 2025 gains.
But valuation alone may not be enough for risk-averse investors. The article’s framing suggests most investors may still prefer to wait for commercial approval of Archer’s eVTOL aircraft before taking a position. Until that confirmation arrives, uncertainty remains high around commercialization readiness, scaling costs, and whether demand materializes quickly enough to offset continued losses.
Competition remains the swing factor
Archer is not operating in a vacuum. The eVTOL space includes multiple companies pursuing similar certification and commercialization goals, and the market can reprice quickly if a competitor secures advantages. According to the article, even though Archer has moved closer to getting aircraft into the air than it was at the time of its public debut, it could still be overtaken if another eVTOL manufacturer brings a superior product or better industry connections.
For investors, that translates into a “winner-take-most” dynamic where timelines, partnerships, and aircraft performance can shape which business models achieve commercial viability. In such an environment, incremental progress may be insufficient to sustain confidence if certification or production milestones slip or if competitors advance faster.
What to watch next
With Archer still working toward commercial approval and production scale, investors will likely focus on regulatory progress, the readiness of Midnight and Thunder for their respective missions, and evidence that Archer can convert development milestones into operational and financial momentum. Upcoming catalysts to monitor include certification-related updates, production ramp disclosures, and any signals about how the company plans to fund losses while building toward commercialization.
